Even if the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee decided to hold interest rates in the October meeting, it acknowledged the scope for further rate cuts while waiting for the impact of the past steps to play out.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
RBI seen cutting repo rate 25 bps on Sept 29, says a poll
Reserve Bank will "wait and watch" the evolving situation before deciding on any further rate cut, Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said as he emphasised that both growth and price stability are equally important. With inflation on a downward trend, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been reducing the benchmark repo rate and has adopted a neutral stance, which also gives the flexibility to either cut or hike the rate going forward. The central bank has cummulatively reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points since February.
State-owned Bank of Baroda (BoB) on Sunday said it has cut its benchmark lending rate linked to repo rate by 50 basis points in line with the RBI's rate reduction. Meanwhile, private sector HDFC Bank reduced its Marginal Cost of Funds-based Lending Rates (MCLR) by 10 basis points across tenure, which will benefit borrowers whose loans are linked to this benchmark.
High frequency indicators suggest that a growth recovery is underway, but very tentatively and with weak legs, says Saugata Bhattacharya.
British banking major RBS on Thursday said it expects the Reserve Bank to cut key rate by 25 basis points or 0.25 per cent in its monetary policy review next week, leaving the cash reserve ratio (CRR) unchanged.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance as the economy is yet to recover from the impact of the second Covid wave.
Host of lenders led by State Bank of India (SBI) and Bank of India hiked lending rates after the Reserve Bank raised the benchmark interest rate to tame inflation. The hike has been effected in their benchmark rate linked to the repo rate, which increased by half a percentage point to 5.9 per cent. Even financial institutions like mortgage lender HDFC Ltd hiked the lending rate by 50 basis points effective Saturday.
'Banking is the only sector that can see double-digit growth in FY27.'
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
Activity in the corporate bond market is set to gain momentum following a 25-bp policy repo rate cut by the rate-setting panel of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). State-owned public cebPower Finance Corporation (PFC) and Small Industries Development Bank of India (Sidbi) are planning to raise up to Rs 11,500 crore through bonds on Tuesday as issuers expect borrowing costs to ease.
Realtors' apex body CREDAI described the RBI decision to cut repo rate by 50 basis points as a bold step and said this will help boost sales of residential properties.
The main reason was that CPI inflation would likely remain below 4 per cent till July.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
Home purchase affordability has improved in the first half of calendar year (CY) 2025, after the RBI reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points (bps), according to real estate consultancy Knight Frank India.
'The government's decision to keep interest rates unchanged on small savings schemes will certainly constrain banks' ability to cut deposit rates further.'
Bank lending to companies is expected to go up in the coming quarters because the difference in interest rates between corporate bonds and bank loans has narrowed. In addition, recent policy reforms by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), including allowing domestic banks to do acquisition financing, are expected to give further support to corporate lending, analysts said.
Strong domestic growth will continue to draw foreign investment into the Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Tuesday. He said this was reflected in recent free trade agreements and investment commitments by large technology companies.
After effecting two back-to-back 25 basis points rate cuts, Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Wednesday hinted at another reduction in key policy rate by changing the central bank's monetary stance to 'accomodative' from 'neutral', which may further lower EMIs for consumers.
The July-September quarter GDP numbers are due on November 30.
The RBI is likely to reduce the key interest rate by 25 basis points this week after keeping it on hold for two years, complementing the Union Budget initiatives to push consumption-led demand, though the sliding rupee continues to be a concern. As the retail inflation has remained within the Reserve Bank's comfort zone (less than 6 per cent) for most of the year, the central bank can take rate action to boost growth hit by sluggish consumption, opined experts.
In a first, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced that it will conduct daily variable rate repo (VRR) auctions on all working days in Mumbai, until further notice. The daily auctions, aimed at easing the current liquidity tightness in the banking system, will begin on Friday, with a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore.
Private sector lender IDFC First Bank has lowered its savings account rates and introduced new slabs for small and medium balance categories, effective January 9, 2025, as per its website. The interest slabs and rates for higher balance accounts remain unchanged. Despite the revision, the bank continues to offer one of the highest savings account interest rates in the industry among mid-sized banks.
'India has the potential to grow at more than 7%, with the monetary policy providing a supportive hand.'
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
The rupee declined 31 paise to settle at 90.65 against the US dollar on Friday, weighed down by geopolitical uncertainties over the US-Iran talks, and a sharp rise in global crude oil prices.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
India's retail inflation marginally increased to 3.4 per cent in March, up from 3.21 per cent in February, primarily due to an uptick in certain food items and the initial impact of the West Asia crisis on fuel prices, according to government data.
Credit card transactions in India have surged over 2.6 times between 2021 and 2025, reaching 570 crore volumes and Rs 23.2 lakh crore in value, with private sector banks significantly increasing their market share, according to a recent RBI report.
While the economy will wait for a rate cut in December, the banking industry should be happy with the wave of liberalisation -- a big push for growth in bank credit, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday delivered a 25 basis point (bps) repo rate cut analysts expected, driven by the strong 8.2 per cent GDP growth in the September quarter. However, analysts do not expect a runaway market rally as the impact of US tariffs continues.
The net liquidity surplus in the banking system fell to Rs 16,875 crore on Thursday the latest data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed, lowest since 22 January.
Retail sales of vehicles across categories in India in 2025 grew by 7.71 per cent at 2,81,61,228 units as compared to 2,61,45,445 in 2024, with GST 2.0 helping overcome a subdued start to the year, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations said on Tuesday.
While participants in the domestic financial market are expecting a 25 basis-point policy repo rate cut in the December meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), economists remain torn between a reduction in rate cut and a pause.
The change in stance to neutral from accommodative in the June monetary policy meeting does not necessarily signal that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate setting body - monetary policy committee (MPC) - will go on a prolonged pause on rate cuts going forward, believe experts.
RBI will be cautious easing rates further given oil price uncertainties
Former Reserve Bank Deputy Governor S S Tarapore on Thursday said that the apex bank should not lower its repo and cash reserve ratio rates in its forthcoming monetary policy review.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has slashed the repo rate by 25 basis points from 7.75 per cent to 7.5 per cent with immediate effect.
